I posted about the economic crisis in Greece yesterday and went on to discuss our own. I was at points rather facetious, but today's news makes me wish I hadn't been.
Three killed as protestors set fire to a bank.
And the EU warn today that our budget deficit is likely to surpass that of Greece.
I'll leave it there.
Wednesday, 5 May 2010
Tuesday, 4 May 2010
Dang, I forgot the date
That's what comes of getting distracted with all this political stuff. Still, I'm just in time... Happy Star Wars Day.
No, really. This isn't just a gratuitous excuse to post a picture of Carrie Fisher in her metal bikini. Trust me.
Home truths
Last night I touched on the subject of Greece's financial state and thought I'd expand on that a little.
Doubtless their current crisis hasn't been helped by the international trading market having a bit of a punt, but fundamentally it seems to me they've dug themselves into it with great enthusiasm.
Reported by Malcolm Brabant, BBC News Athens:
You mean Greek foresters have to work outdoors? Dear me, I can see why they'd need a bonus.
OK, having got the undoubted pleasure of smirking at foreigners out of the way, let's have a look closer to home.
EU estimated figures reported by the BBC here put the Greek budget deficit at 13.6% of GDP. That's appalling, and the Eurozone economies are supposed to observe a limit of 3%.
Ours is 11.5%. What saves us from being exactly in the same boat as Greece, with nothing in the coffers and a credit-rating of sod all, is the total debt. For Greece, it's 115% of GDP, while ours is a little under 70%, and a lot of ours isn't repayable right now but a fair way off. Those from whom our Government would seek to borrow money are - so far - taking the view that we have sufficient time to sort things out such that we can afford to make the necessary repayments when due. We therefore still have a good credit-rating and, accordingly, don't have to pay too much interest on the loans. But that can change quite quickly.
The size of our national debt is a huge, urgent concern - or should be - as it's now of a size where just servicing the debt consumes a terrifying amount. I've seen a figure for 2009 of £35 billion, about the same as the defence budget. We get nothing for that £35 billion, that's just to stand still without defaulting.
All the time we run a budget deficit, the total increases and the amount that has to be dedicated just to paying the interest increases.
This is not rocket science. It's exactly the same principle at work as if you keep on using your credit card and repaying less each month than you've put on it. We all know how that goes. OK, for a while you can roll it over by getting a new card and new credit to pay off the old debt, but eventually the merry-go-round grinds to a halt and you become more intimately acquainted with your local soup kitchens than you really intended. At a national scale, you have emergency measures which often fall hardest on the most vulnerable, riots in the streets and lots of foreign correspondents wandering around trying not to laugh. Oh, and if you're a public sector worker, or on a public sector pension... sorry, we can't pay this month. Not sure about next month, depends on the IMF chaps, so don't spend too much, eh?
The politicians competing for your vote on Thursday know this full well. *Pause* OK, I bet some of them don't, but they really should. Most voters don't - one recent poll suggested that 50% of voters think no spending cuts are required at all.
We're spending beyond our means as fast as the Greeks were, and it will end up the same way unless drastic action is taken. Taxes can only go up so far, the 'recovery' growth in our economy might or might not happen, so serious, painful cuts in public expenditure cannot be avoided. We can do this in a planned way that seeks to mitigate the effects as much as possible for those who really need public help (and only those - means testing will be a way of life soon), or we can have it thrust upon us chaotically by the IMF a few years down the line. You choose.
Still, one bright spot is I suppose we can be thankful that unlike the Greeks we haven't got a huge financial clusterf**k of an Olympics to pay for.
Oh, wait... bugger...
Doubtless their current crisis hasn't been helped by the international trading market having a bit of a punt, but fundamentally it seems to me they've dug themselves into it with great enthusiasm.
Reported by Malcolm Brabant, BBC News Athens:
"On Planet Greece, some civil servants get a bonus for turning up to work on time. Foresters get a bonus for working outdoors. At least they show up.
There are civil servants called ghost workers because they never go into the office, head to a second job and still claim a state salary. They can't get sacked, because a civil service post is for life. Unless the incumbent decides to retire in his or her forties, with a pension.
And the government can continue paying for the afterlife. Unmarried and divorced daughters of civil servants are entitled to collect their dead parents pensions. Another lucrative sinecure is to belong to a state committee. The government has no idea how many there are. It has been estimated that they have 10,000 employees and cost nearly £200m a year, and that includes the committee to manage a lake that dried up 80 years ago."
You mean Greek foresters have to work outdoors? Dear me, I can see why they'd need a bonus.
OK, having got the undoubted pleasure of smirking at foreigners out of the way, let's have a look closer to home.
EU estimated figures reported by the BBC here put the Greek budget deficit at 13.6% of GDP. That's appalling, and the Eurozone economies are supposed to observe a limit of 3%.
Ours is 11.5%. What saves us from being exactly in the same boat as Greece, with nothing in the coffers and a credit-rating of sod all, is the total debt. For Greece, it's 115% of GDP, while ours is a little under 70%, and a lot of ours isn't repayable right now but a fair way off. Those from whom our Government would seek to borrow money are - so far - taking the view that we have sufficient time to sort things out such that we can afford to make the necessary repayments when due. We therefore still have a good credit-rating and, accordingly, don't have to pay too much interest on the loans. But that can change quite quickly.
The size of our national debt is a huge, urgent concern - or should be - as it's now of a size where just servicing the debt consumes a terrifying amount. I've seen a figure for 2009 of £35 billion, about the same as the defence budget. We get nothing for that £35 billion, that's just to stand still without defaulting.
All the time we run a budget deficit, the total increases and the amount that has to be dedicated just to paying the interest increases.
This is not rocket science. It's exactly the same principle at work as if you keep on using your credit card and repaying less each month than you've put on it. We all know how that goes. OK, for a while you can roll it over by getting a new card and new credit to pay off the old debt, but eventually the merry-go-round grinds to a halt and you become more intimately acquainted with your local soup kitchens than you really intended. At a national scale, you have emergency measures which often fall hardest on the most vulnerable, riots in the streets and lots of foreign correspondents wandering around trying not to laugh. Oh, and if you're a public sector worker, or on a public sector pension... sorry, we can't pay this month. Not sure about next month, depends on the IMF chaps, so don't spend too much, eh?
The politicians competing for your vote on Thursday know this full well. *Pause* OK, I bet some of them don't, but they really should. Most voters don't - one recent poll suggested that 50% of voters think no spending cuts are required at all.
We're spending beyond our means as fast as the Greeks were, and it will end up the same way unless drastic action is taken. Taxes can only go up so far, the 'recovery' growth in our economy might or might not happen, so serious, painful cuts in public expenditure cannot be avoided. We can do this in a planned way that seeks to mitigate the effects as much as possible for those who really need public help (and only those - means testing will be a way of life soon), or we can have it thrust upon us chaotically by the IMF a few years down the line. You choose.Still, one bright spot is I suppose we can be thankful that unlike the Greeks we haven't got a huge financial clusterf**k of an Olympics to pay for.
Oh, wait... bugger...
Monday, 3 May 2010
Old habits die hard
There's been much talk about the appalling mess in public finances (some of it by me), how the incoming government will have to roll back public sector spend, how we face the age of austerity yada yada blah. Despite the example of Greece now available to us, however, I don't think the penny has dropped yet - or at least, not where it needs to drop. Very likely, nothing substantive will be done until we, like Greece, need a bail-out from the IMF or the EU, such bail-out coming with strings attached which force us to start taking a serious slash-and-burn approach to public expenditure. In a sense, you can't really blame politicians, whether national or local, for carrying on as usual all the time we - the people (bless us and save us) authorise their activity by returning them to power.
All that said, sometimes people do take the piss. Look at some of the jobs available now, from the Guardian:
Contact Centre & Business Support Manager
"Leading the Contact Centre and Business Support Service for Environmental Services, you’ll look to reposition service delivery in a proactive, customer focussed way. This will see you reviewing business processes, streamlining working practices and developing a consistent approach to service delivery. This will be contained within an overall Contact Centre and Business Support Strategy that meets business objectives and enhances links with Nottingham’s communities."
Nottingham City Council, up to £36,313.
WTF does all that mean? Experience tells us that even if it were written in English it would be bollocks. Hands up any Nottingham City Council taxpayer who would vote for this job existing?
No?
Anyone?
Assistant Director Partnerships and Performance
"Your priority in this role will be to transform the way we work and engage with and empower our partners in shaping how we deliver services.You will take the lead on corporate performance and external inspection like CAA and support to Warrington Borough Partnership to deliver Total Place. You will manage a diverse range of other functions including research, consultation, health and safety, land charges and emergency planning. You will be a key member of the Directorate Management Team and a regular advisor to the Strategic Management Board and the Executive Board."
Warrington Borough Council, up to £77,000.
Again we say: WTF? And if the humble 'Assistant Director' gets £77K, what on earth does his or her boss get?
Parking Processing Manager
"We are looking for a talented parking professional to manage our parking processing and concessionary travel services. This role has overall responsibility for representations and appeals, notice processing, debt recovery, and concessionary travel (Blue badges, Freedom Passes and Taxi cards). The role will also have responsibility for the financial management of the service."
London Borough of Haringey, £48,501-£51,414
Comment from me would be superfluous, so I shall content myself with banging my head on the desk at the concept of a 'parking professional'.
Business development officer
"The focus of this role is to drive continuous service improvement and transformation across all our services by:
* Building strong relationships with external partners to harness their potential in delivering excellent outcomes for residents
* Working in collaboration with partners and colleagues to implement service improvement initiatives across all areas of the business
* Developing and implementing innovative service initiatives
* Developing effective organisational plans in response to customer insight data and to meet best practice"
Tower Hamlets, £38-40K
"Customer insight data" is what we used to call complaints. But I must admit it does sound much nicer that way.
Enough, point made, I'm sounding disturbingly like Richard Littlejohn, and such a terrible thought is not one I propose to entertain on my birthday. I'm going to eat some of Mrs QO's beautiful sourdough bread, open a bottle of Rioja, and be happy.
All that said, sometimes people do take the piss. Look at some of the jobs available now, from the Guardian:
Contact Centre & Business Support Manager
"Leading the Contact Centre and Business Support Service for Environmental Services, you’ll look to reposition service delivery in a proactive, customer focussed way. This will see you reviewing business processes, streamlining working practices and developing a consistent approach to service delivery. This will be contained within an overall Contact Centre and Business Support Strategy that meets business objectives and enhances links with Nottingham’s communities."
Nottingham City Council, up to £36,313.
WTF does all that mean? Experience tells us that even if it were written in English it would be bollocks. Hands up any Nottingham City Council taxpayer who would vote for this job existing?
No?
Anyone?
Assistant Director Partnerships and Performance
"Your priority in this role will be to transform the way we work and engage with and empower our partners in shaping how we deliver services.You will take the lead on corporate performance and external inspection like CAA and support to Warrington Borough Partnership to deliver Total Place. You will manage a diverse range of other functions including research, consultation, health and safety, land charges and emergency planning. You will be a key member of the Directorate Management Team and a regular advisor to the Strategic Management Board and the Executive Board."
Warrington Borough Council, up to £77,000.
Again we say: WTF? And if the humble 'Assistant Director' gets £77K, what on earth does his or her boss get?
Parking Processing Manager
"We are looking for a talented parking professional to manage our parking processing and concessionary travel services. This role has overall responsibility for representations and appeals, notice processing, debt recovery, and concessionary travel (Blue badges, Freedom Passes and Taxi cards). The role will also have responsibility for the financial management of the service."
London Borough of Haringey, £48,501-£51,414
Comment from me would be superfluous, so I shall content myself with banging my head on the desk at the concept of a 'parking professional'.
Business development officer
"The focus of this role is to drive continuous service improvement and transformation across all our services by:
* Building strong relationships with external partners to harness their potential in delivering excellent outcomes for residents
* Working in collaboration with partners and colleagues to implement service improvement initiatives across all areas of the business
* Developing and implementing innovative service initiatives
* Developing effective organisational plans in response to customer insight data and to meet best practice"
Tower Hamlets, £38-40K
"Customer insight data" is what we used to call complaints. But I must admit it does sound much nicer that way.
Enough, point made, I'm sounding disturbingly like Richard Littlejohn, and such a terrible thought is not one I propose to entertain on my birthday. I'm going to eat some of Mrs QO's beautiful sourdough bread, open a bottle of Rioja, and be happy.
Friday, 30 April 2010
Welcome home
This morning I looked up - as I tend to at this time of year - and saw exactly what I've been looking for the last couple of weeks. A black anchor-shape carving the air. The swifts are back.
Mrs QO was profoundly grateful to hear the news, which of course I texted to her within the minute. She will know I now have a radically lower chance of a car-crash, since I will no longer be scanning the skies while driving, instead of checking out the joker in front braking too hard.
I've always loved these masters of the sky. The swift is, arguably, more perfectly adapted to its medium than any other creature. From the time it first jumps out of the nest through to the first time it mates and nests two or three years later, it won't touch the ground. In level flight, it's the fastest bird [adopting Jeremy Clarkson voice] in the world, having been clocked at just under 70mph - some sources put their top speed when diving considerably over 100mph - and no other bird spends more of its life on the wing. Swifts live a long time - one ringed specimen was over 20 years old when found killed by an accident, though the average is probably quite a bit lower - and they're strongly territorial, so the ones you will be seeing soon over your skies are probably old friends, even if you haven't said hello before.
If you see one perching on a wire, congratulations - you've seen a swallow or a martin. Different families entirely, despite their similar conformation. Swifts don't do perching.
Swifts arrive in England around the beginning of May and, having raised their young, will return to southern Africa by the end of July. For the fledglings, that's quite an L-plate trip - I've flown the 6,000-odd miles to sub-Saharan Africa and I found it tiring, and I had four large jet engines and some very attractive trolly-dollies helping. OK, they don't have to be searched at Heathrow, or go through Customs at Jo'burg, but you take my point.
We don't have these beautiful and perfect creatures for long, and their numbers are sadly diminishing as modern house-building methods don't suit their nesting requirements as well as the old Victorian designs. So I encourage you to cherish them while they're here, and to think of them as British birds rather than just exotic summer visitors - they may fly hundreds of miles a day, but the ones you see looking up from your garden into those high blue skies of summer were probably born in your postcode. Think of them as neighbours.
Mrs QO was profoundly grateful to hear the news, which of course I texted to her within the minute. She will know I now have a radically lower chance of a car-crash, since I will no longer be scanning the skies while driving, instead of checking out the joker in front braking too hard.
I've always loved these masters of the sky. The swift is, arguably, more perfectly adapted to its medium than any other creature. From the time it first jumps out of the nest through to the first time it mates and nests two or three years later, it won't touch the ground. In level flight, it's the fastest bird [adopting Jeremy Clarkson voice] in the world, having been clocked at just under 70mph - some sources put their top speed when diving considerably over 100mph - and no other bird spends more of its life on the wing. Swifts live a long time - one ringed specimen was over 20 years old when found killed by an accident, though the average is probably quite a bit lower - and they're strongly territorial, so the ones you will be seeing soon over your skies are probably old friends, even if you haven't said hello before.
If you see one perching on a wire, congratulations - you've seen a swallow or a martin. Different families entirely, despite their similar conformation. Swifts don't do perching.
Swifts arrive in England around the beginning of May and, having raised their young, will return to southern Africa by the end of July. For the fledglings, that's quite an L-plate trip - I've flown the 6,000-odd miles to sub-Saharan Africa and I found it tiring, and I had four large jet engines and some very attractive trolly-dollies helping. OK, they don't have to be searched at Heathrow, or go through Customs at Jo'burg, but you take my point.
We don't have these beautiful and perfect creatures for long, and their numbers are sadly diminishing as modern house-building methods don't suit their nesting requirements as well as the old Victorian designs. So I encourage you to cherish them while they're here, and to think of them as British birds rather than just exotic summer visitors - they may fly hundreds of miles a day, but the ones you see looking up from your garden into those high blue skies of summer were probably born in your postcode. Think of them as neighbours.
Tuesday, 27 April 2010
Media opportunities
I know the political parties and their media wonks have a lot on their mind right now. But Labour's lot really seem to have lost it, just when they need to be at their sharpest. This video is doing the rounds, for example.
Dearie me. Poorly judged in all sorts of ways. And it's not as if Labour wouldn't have to be cutting back hugely themselves if returned to power - see today's analysis from the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Wouldn't it be nice if any of the parties treated us like thinking adults and told us the truth?
And then there's the Elvis impersonator stunt.
Dearie dearie me. This is made particularly delicious for me by the as yet unconfirmed reports that Corby borough council is investigating whether the appearance by Elvis at the Labour event broke the law, since the venue didn't have a licence authorising the performance of music. As a former folk-club organiser, with a dim view of the licensing laws over the last few years, I fervently hope that the organisers of the event (Alistair Campbell and the headmaster of the college concerned) face the full rigours of criminal prosecution as they so richly deserve, either under the licensing laws or the Criminally Bad Judgement Act 2009. But I expect their defence would be that it wasn't 'music' under any generally understood interpretation. Though it certainly was entertainment - perhaps not quite as they'd intended, but there you go.
Dearie me. Poorly judged in all sorts of ways. And it's not as if Labour wouldn't have to be cutting back hugely themselves if returned to power - see today's analysis from the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Wouldn't it be nice if any of the parties treated us like thinking adults and told us the truth?
And then there's the Elvis impersonator stunt.
Dearie dearie me. This is made particularly delicious for me by the as yet unconfirmed reports that Corby borough council is investigating whether the appearance by Elvis at the Labour event broke the law, since the venue didn't have a licence authorising the performance of music. As a former folk-club organiser, with a dim view of the licensing laws over the last few years, I fervently hope that the organisers of the event (Alistair Campbell and the headmaster of the college concerned) face the full rigours of criminal prosecution as they so richly deserve, either under the licensing laws or the Criminally Bad Judgement Act 2009. But I expect their defence would be that it wasn't 'music' under any generally understood interpretation. Though it certainly was entertainment - perhaps not quite as they'd intended, but there you go.
Thursday, 22 April 2010
'Cheers' for England and St George
It's one of the more depressing signs of our times that celebrating St George's Day has become a bit shady, a bit frowned upon. Without wanting to go all Daily Fail and "it's political correctness gone mad", there is something sad about the way that we now seem to face a polarised choice - either:(a) get all red-faced and shouty about immigrants taking our workers' jobs, call for Maggie (or Winston) to come back and save us, put a few windows in and end up ticketed for D&D - "£80 and we'll call it quits, sir or madam, no, it won't go on your criminal record but it will show up on CRB checks, but don't you worry about it, just think how much money we've saved by you not having the chance to explain in court";
or
b) quietly ignore the whole thing, forgetting any sense of fondness for our country and the good things about it, and tutting and muttering about anyone who's so crass as to mention the day or fly a flag or otherwise be so regrettably recidivist. Give 'em a ticket for something. The country could use another £80.
Yes, I exaggerate. My middle name is hyperbole. (Remember Python: "He used...sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor, bathos, puns, parody, litotes and...satire.") Never mind, I've been drinking beer. Let me give you a good reason for that.
Acquire and read this book.
I have no kick-back on this, I just think the book should be widely read. Dan Kieran talks about 'Albion' and wonders where it went; in political terms he's not working the 'left or right' axis so much as the 'libertarian or authoritarian' one. His original intention was to go out and break as many daft laws as he could but things changed during his research as he became increasingly aware of the erosion of civil liberties that has taken place over recent years. A historian friend of his talks about Hogarth's famous picture Gin Lane:"It's not widely realized that it is part of a pair. Gin Lane is bad but the other one, Beer Street, is good. [...] People think Hogarth was having a go at alcohol in general with Gin Lane, but gin was what was causing all the problems, not beer. Everything in Beer Street is paradise. The only one not having a good time in Beer Street is the pawnbroker, because beer is part of the true English birthright. [...] the rights of the True-Born Englishman are to drink beer and defy authority. To defy tyranny whatever its guise."
And Dan Kieran himself says:"Being told that being English actually means being part of an inclusive mongrel race that has always thrived on diversity, and that your right and duty as a member of that race is to stand up against tyranny whatever its guise - government, corporations or anyone who tries to exploit you or take away your freedom - and drink large amounts of beer (rather than gin, or its modern equivalents, alcopops, flavoured vodka and those luminous shots you can buy in dodgy nightclubs), was all of great comfort to me. That was an idea of national identity I could get on board with."
Me too. And so can Mrs QO, whom I nagged for ages to read the book until she did, and she even took her hands off her pint to read a bit back to me this afternoon, which I think tells you a lot. We sat in the sunshine, drank beer, and hoped for better things for our country. Sadly, the outcome of the discussion was that as soon as we can manage it, we'll escape either to France or Islay. Probably Islay, as we happen to know there's a couple of English lads brewing great beer there, and it's far enough away from Westminster to be a bit more wholesome.
But to the point. Yes, there was one, originally, though I grant you it's taken a while to emerge. Go out tomorrow and drink beer, resist oppression, embrace diversity and be happy. If that's how we might celebrate St George's Day, I don't see any harm in it.
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